The war is over.
Some called it a battle. Others a war. But the blue laser thing was more like a tussle…a two year tussle.
HD DVD had Toshiba, the DVD Forum (that sure helped DVD-RAM?) and a few studios that were kinda, maybe, sorta on their side. Oh yeah…and Microsoft.BD had Sony and its string of content owners, Panasonic, the CE industry and a lot of financially grateful production houses.On one side a technology leader who wanted to have a consumer presence.
“This site also demonstrates one of the great dangers of archeology, not to life and limb, although that does sometimes take place, I'm talking about folklore.” – Indiana Jones (Harrison Ford) – Raiders of the Lost Ark (Lucasfilms – 1981)
As Marion (Karen Allen) said...“Wait, wait. I can be reasonable.”
Clashing technologies are fraught with obstacles and dangers. Every competitor in the PC, CE arena has been pursued by the competition. Photo Source - Lucasfilm
On the other…hardened marketing/sales.As Indie said, “A competitor... he was good. He was very good.” Everyone (except for Toshiba) was certain BD would hold the winning hand more than a year ago…it’s called capacity. Consumers can understand that. But at CES the end was in sight.
Decent Show – While Toshiba was strong on engineering/manufacturing and short on marketing, they did put on a positive smile at their events around the globe.
The HD DVD team held their demos, scheduled their press conference. Warner issued their announcement (they had warned Toshiba) that they were going BD. HD DVD cancelled their press conference. The BD marketing/sales folks hit the streets.
In rapid succession:
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Best Buy swung to BD
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NetFlix signed on
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Blockbuster wasn’t going to be left out
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Target went BD
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Wal-Mart threw its billions behind BD
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Universal – oh what the heck!
That leaves all the strong players – Circuit City, RadioShack – uncommitted.Or as Barranca stated, “If they knew we were here, they would've killed us already.” Some say MS muddied the waters spending money to slow progress for both with plans to make it up on the Internet download backside. That dream exists. A lot of folks believe it is almost here. Everyone except the folks who have tried it.
Figure 1 - Yes But – Even the number of early adopters who have toyed with video (movie) downloads still prefer to have a disc in their hand, in their library. The percentages may shift but people still like physical things. Source - CEA
First of all there are pipe issues. Pew Internet research notes that only 51% of the homes in the Americas have broadband networks. The U.S. lags behind 10 of its international competitors. Japan has 65%, South Korea 94%. The rest of the folks have dial-up or something else …we don’t want to know what that is!
So if you want to download a true high definition movie, you’ve got a LLLOOONNNNGGG wait.
Figure 2 - Dream vs Reality – HD movie downloads take a long time to download if they are to be enjoyed at their maximum clarity. Especially when you’re watching your stuff on a large HDTV screen. And that’s under ideal circumstances. Source -- IDC
To make the download tolerable, they downscale the movie. Down to something “a little better” than DVD. Don’t know about you but if we’re going to watch that quality on our HDTV…we’ll rent the DVD (there will be a lot more title choices for years to come). Fact is BD’s biggest challenge isn’t going to be holding back the flood of on-line movies but convincing folks they need to upgrade to new players.
Sure HD movies are “a little better” than DVDs. But according to IDC, 97% of the American households already have a working DVD player. New units cost zip. Blue light specials on blue players cost (yesterday’s models) about $300. Most computers (ok so the Mac Air is an exception) comes with a DVD burner (you can buy an external for about $40, with upscaling - $80). Media…well under a buck a disc! An external BD burner goes for aahh…ooppss!!! Continued on next page...
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