Microsoft has a huge head start on Sony, and historically the first one to 10 million consoles sold wins! Microsoft also has an established online system and community, something which Sony hasn’t even experimented with… and today online gaming will make or break the system’s success.
All the critics are saying the Wii’s control scheme is evolutionary and extremely intuitive, but so is the DS, which trails last in the handheld market. The best product isn’t necessarially the market leader… remember BetaMax tapes, the Sega Dreamcast, and Atari Jaguar? For the Wii’s control scheme to be considered anything more than a novelty, then every game must use it! Sure Nintendo is showing how cool it is to aim Link’s bow with the Wii, but unless every game uses the Wii then it’s just a gimmick. Guitar Hero has a special controller for it’s game, too, but it isn’t considered an evolutionary controller… and has there been any mention of the Wii’s online support?
Nintendo’s philosophy of the Wii is that it is centric to your home entertainment… but been there, done that… Xbox has built-in Media Center Extention support and HD-DVD coming, and the PS3 will be a Blu-Ray player…
Here’s what my Jedi powers have forseen:
1. Xbox 3630 (by a huge margin)
2. Playstation3 (and online will be a huge letdown, and people will migrate to the 360)
3. Nintendo Wii (only Nintendo fans will buy this)